Life is full of surprises, some pleasant, others decidedly not. We can plan, research, and strategize, but there’s always that nagging feeling that something unforeseen could completely derail us. That’s where the mental model of Unknown Unknowns comes into play. It’s a powerful concept that helps us acknowledge and, to some extent, prepare for the things we don’t even know that we don’t know.

1. What is Unknown Unknowns? #

Simply put, Unknown Unknowns are risks or opportunities we’re completely blind to. They represent the blind spots beyond our awareness that can have significant, often unexpected, consequences. It’s the things we didn’t anticipate because we didn’t even know they could happen.

The term gained prominence in the realm of risk management, particularly in the defense and intelligence communities. Donald Rumsfeld famously used the phrase in a 2002 press briefing regarding the lack of evidence linking the Iraqi government to supplying terrorists with weapons of mass destruction. While the statement itself became controversial, the underlying concept resonated. The idea of “things we don’t know we don’t know” isn’t new, but Rumsfeld’s phrasing brought it into the mainstream. Though often associated with risk management, the idea has its roots in systems thinking and epistemology – the study of knowledge itself.

2. How It Works #

Imagine a series of nested boxes. The inner-most box represents what you know you know. The next box is what you know you don’t know – these are your recognized knowledge gaps. But surrounding both is a huge, dark, empty box: the Unknown Unknowns. This is the territory beyond our current understanding.

Think of it like navigating a ship at sea.

• Known Knowns: You know the weather forecast, you know the ship’s capabilities, you know your destination.
• Known Unknowns: You know there might be icebergs, but you don’t know exactly where they are. You’re aware of the potential danger, so you can scan the horizon and use radar.
• Unknown Unknowns: A rogue wave hits, capsizing the ship. You couldn’t have predicted it; it was completely outside your realm of possibilities.

The challenge with Unknown Unknowns is that you can’t directly address them. You can’t prepare for something you don’t know exists. Instead, you focus on increasing your awareness of potential vulnerabilities and developing resilience to unexpected events. It’s about building a safety net, rather than trying to predict the unpredictable.

3. Examples of the Model in Action #

Here are a few examples illustrating the impact of Unknown Unknowns:

• Business: A company invests heavily in a new technology, confident it will revolutionize their industry. They account for known competitors and potential market fluctuations (Known Unknowns). However, an unforeseen shift in consumer preferences towards a completely different technology renders their investment obsolete. This sudden, unexpected change was an Unknown Unknown that devastated their business plan.
• Personal Life: You diligently save for retirement, considering inflation, healthcare costs, and potential market downturns (Known Unknowns). However, a sudden medical diagnosis requires expensive, experimental treatment not covered by insurance. This unforeseen health crisis, an Unknown Unknown, significantly impacts your financial stability.
• Science: Scientists develop a new antibiotic to combat a specific bacterial infection. They test it rigorously for known side effects (Known Unknowns). However, after widespread use, a completely unexpected and devastating autoimmune reaction emerges in a small percentage of patients. This novel and unforeseen consequence was an Unknown Unknown that required immediate action and a re-evaluation of the antibiotic.

4. Common Misunderstandings or Pitfalls #

A key misconception is confusing Unknown Unknowns with Known Unknowns. It’s easy to label something you could have foreseen as an Unknown Unknown after the fact. However, true Unknown Unknowns are those that genuinely surprised even the most informed and experienced individuals.

Another pitfall is using the concept as an excuse for inaction. Just because you can’t predict everything doesn’t mean you shouldn’t plan or prepare. Instead, acknowledge the possibility of Unknown Unknowns while focusing on mitigating risks you can identify.

5. How to Apply It in Daily Life #

While you can’t eliminate Unknown Unknowns, you can minimize their impact by:

• Cultivating Curiosity: Actively seek out new information and perspectives. Read widely, talk to people from different backgrounds, and challenge your own assumptions.
• Developing Adaptability: Practice being flexible and open to change. Don’t become too attached to a specific plan or outcome.
• Building Resilience: Create a buffer in your life to absorb unexpected shocks. This could involve having a financial safety net, strong social support, or diverse skill sets.
• Embracing Scenario Planning: Consider “what if” scenarios, even if they seem unlikely. This helps you develop contingency plans and broaden your thinking.
• Learning from Mistakes: Analyze past failures to identify blind spots. What could you have done differently? What assumptions were wrong?

6. Related Mental Models #

Several mental models complement the concept of Unknown Unknowns:

• Second-Order Thinking: Consider the indirect and unintended consequences of your actions. This helps uncover potential ripple effects you might not have initially anticipated.
• Black Swan Theory: Focuses on the impact of rare, high-impact events that are impossible to predict beforehand. Acknowledging the potential for Black Swan events encourages a more cautious and adaptable approach.
• Margin of Safety: Build in a buffer in your plans and calculations to account for unexpected events and errors. This helps mitigate the impact of Unknown Unknowns.

By understanding and embracing the concept of Unknown Unknowns, we can move from a position of blind faith to a more realistic and resilient approach to life and decision-making. We can’t eliminate the unexpected, but we can better prepare ourselves to navigate the fog.