Have you ever heard something repeated so often that you started to believe it, even if it seemed a little far-fetched at first? That’s the power of the “Three men make a tiger” mental model at work. It’s a potent reminder that repeated information, even if untrue, can become accepted as reality. In a world saturated with information, understanding this concept is more critical than ever.

1. What is Three men make a tiger?

The phrase “Three men make a tiger” (三人成虎, sān rén chéng hǔ) is a Chinese proverb illustrating how repeated information from multiple sources can lead people to believe absurd claims, even if they know the information is initially false. Imagine hearing a rumor that a tiger is roaming the local streets. One person might be dismissed, but when two, and then three people repeat the story, it starts to gain traction. Soon, everyone is locking their doors, convinced of the presence of a nonexistent tiger.

This mental model originates from a story in the Zhan Guo Ce (Strategies of the Warring States), a historical Chinese text. The story tells of Pang Cong, a minister of the state of Zhao, who asked his king if he would believe someone who said a tiger was roaming the market. The king said he would not. Pang Cong then asked if he would believe two people. The king said he would be suspicious. Finally, Pang Cong asked if he would believe three people. The king said he would. Pang Cong then pointed out that he was going away on a mission and warned the king not to believe rumors spread by his enemies while he was gone.

This proverb isn’t rooted in any single academic discipline, but it aligns well with concepts in psychology, especially social proof and the bandwagon effect, as well as communication theory regarding the power of propaganda and persuasive messaging.

2. How It Works

The “Three men make a tiger” mental model operates on a few key principles:

• Source Credibility (or Perceived Credibility): The more sources repeating the information, the more credible it seems. It doesn’t necessarily matter who is saying it, but how many are saying it. Even if the sources are unreliable individually, the sheer number can sway opinion.

• Cognitive Bias: Our brains often rely on mental shortcuts to process information. Repetition can trigger a cognitive bias known as the “availability heuristic,” where we perceive information that is easily recalled as more likely to be true. Simply put, we believe what we hear often.

• Social Proof: Humans are social creatures. We often look to others for cues on how to behave and what to believe. If everyone around us seems to accept a claim, we are more likely to accept it ourselves, even if we have initial doubts.

Think of it like this: Imagine a snowball rolling downhill. A single flake of snow doesn’t make a difference. But as more and more flakes attach themselves, the snowball grows in size and momentum, eventually becoming an unstoppable force. That’s how repeated information, even false information, can gain traction and influence.

3. Examples of the Model in Action

• Business: The “Hot Stock” Tip: Imagine constantly hearing about a “guaranteed” stock market winner. One mention might be ignored, but if multiple news outlets, online forums, and even friends repeat the tip, you might be tempted to invest, despite lacking personal research. This can lead to a financial bubble or, worse, falling prey to a pump-and-dump scheme.

• Personal Life: The “Bad Reputation”: A new colleague is joining your team. You hear rumblings from a couple of people that they are “difficult to work with.” Initially, you’re skeptical. But as more colleagues echo the sentiment, you start to approach this person with a preconceived notion, potentially hindering your ability to form an objective opinion or a positive working relationship.

• Science: The “Vaccine Myth”: Despite overwhelming scientific evidence supporting the safety and efficacy of vaccines, misinformation continues to spread. The repeated sharing of debunked claims on social media, even if refuted by experts, has led to vaccine hesitancy, highlighting the dangerous real-world consequences of the “Three men make a tiger” effect.

4. Common Misunderstandings or Pitfalls

A common pitfall is assuming that all repeated information is false or manipulative. This isn’t the case. Repeated exposure to accurate information is crucial for learning and reinforcing positive habits. The key is to differentiate between repetition that builds understanding and repetition that spreads misinformation.

Another error is believing you are immune to the effect. Everyone is susceptible to the influence of repeated information. Acknowledging this vulnerability is the first step toward critical thinking and informed decision-making.

5. How to Apply It in Daily Life

Here are some practical tips to combat the “Three men make a tiger” effect:

• Seek Diverse Sources: Don’t rely on a single source of information, especially if it’s constantly pushing a specific narrative. Actively seek out alternative viewpoints and credible sources to form a well-rounded understanding.
• Challenge Assumptions: When you hear something repeatedly, ask yourself: “Is this actually true, or am I just hearing it often?” Question the underlying evidence and the motivations of the source.
• Embrace Skepticism: A healthy dose of skepticism is essential. Don’t blindly accept claims, especially those that seem too good to be true or that reinforce your existing biases.
• Pause Before Sharing: Before sharing information, especially on social media, take a moment to verify its accuracy. Use reputable fact-checking websites and consider the potential impact of spreading misinformation.
• Listen to the Counter Argument: Actively seek out the counter argument, understand it, and use it to challenge your existing perception to see if it still holds true.

6. Related Mental Models

Several other mental models can help you better understand and navigate the “Three men make a tiger” effect:

• Confirmation Bias: Our tendency to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs while ignoring information that contradicts them. Understanding confirmation bias can help you recognize when you might be selectively filtering information to support a pre-existing notion.
• Bandwagon Effect: The tendency to do or believe things because many other people do or believe the same. Being aware of the bandwagon effect can help you resist the urge to conform to popular opinion without critical thinking.
• First Principles Thinking: Breaking down a problem to its fundamental truths and reasoning up from there. Using First Principles will help you look at any idea from the ground up rather than getting carried away with an idea that is being repeated.

By understanding and applying the “Three men make a tiger” mental model, you can become a more critical thinker, a more informed decision-maker, and ultimately, more resilient to the persuasive power of misinformation. Don’t let the whispers turn into a roaring tiger that isn’t there.