Have you ever wondered why some ideas, books, or even companies seem to just… stick around? While fleeting trends come and go, certain things endure. The reason might be the Lindy effect, a fascinating mental model that helps us predict the future longevity of things that don’t have a natural lifespan. Let’s dive in.

1. What is the Lindy Effect? #

Simply put, the Lindy effect states that the longer something non-perishable has existed, the longer it is likely to continue existing. Think of it like this: a book that’s been in print for 50 years is likely to remain in print for another 50 years. A new technology might seem promising, but its odds of lasting are significantly lower than a technology that’s already proven itself over decades.

The Lindy effect originated in the world of comedy. The Lindy’s Delicatessen in New York City was a hangout for comedians, and they observed that the longevity of a comedian’s career was proportional to the time they had already been performing. This observation was formalized by Benoît Mandelbrot, the mathematician famous for fractal geometry, and popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books like “Antifragile.”

Importantly, the Lindy effect applies to things that don’t have a fixed lifespan. A human being will inevitably die. But an idea, a mathematical theorem, or a technology can potentially live forever.

2. How It Works #

Imagine a river. New streams join the river all the time, representing new ideas and technologies. Some dry up quickly (failed startups, passing fads). Others grow, but many eventually diminish. The main riverbed, however, continues to flow, carving deeper and deeper into the landscape with each passing year. This represents established ideas and practices that have stood the test of time.

The Lindy effect essentially says that the longer a stream has contributed to the main river, the more likely it is to continue contributing. Here’s a breakdown:

• Past Success is a Signal: Longevity is evidence that something is robust, useful, and resilient. It has survived challenges and adapted to changing environments.
• Exponential Lifespan: The longer something has been around, the longer its expected remaining lifespan increases. A 10-year-old website has a higher chance of surviving another 10 years than a 1-year-old website has of surviving another year.
• Distinction Between Perishable and Non-Perishable: The Lindy effect doesn’t apply to things with a fixed lifespan (humans, perishable goods, etc.). It’s about ideas, technologies, and institutions that could theoretically endure indefinitely.

3. Examples of the Model in Action #

Let’s see the Lindy effect in action:

• Investing: Imagine two companies. Company A is a startup in a hot new industry, while Company B has been around for 50 years selling a relatively unglamorous product. While Company A might promise rapid growth, the Lindy effect suggests that Company B, with its proven track record and resilience, is a safer, more sustainable long-term investment. This doesn’t guarantee success, but it highlights the power of longevity.
• Technology: A new social media platform launches, boasting innovative features. Meanwhile, email, a decades-old technology, continues to be a vital communication tool. While the new platform might be exciting, the Lindy effect suggests that email will likely outlast it because of its established presence and continued utility.
• Personal Finance: A popular influencer is promoting a new, complex investment strategy promising high returns. You could choose to follow this fad, or you could stick with basic, time-tested principles of investing like diversification and dollar-cost averaging. The Lindy effect would suggest that the long-term proven principles are a more reliable path to financial security than a short-lived trend.

4. Common Misunderstandings or Pitfalls #

It’s easy to misinterpret the Lindy effect. Here are some common pitfalls:

• Confusing Lindy with Stagnation: The Lindy effect doesn’t mean you should only stick with the old. Innovation is crucial. It simply suggests that proven methods deserve more respect and consideration than untested ones.
• Ignoring Context: The Lindy effect is a heuristic, not a guarantee. It doesn’t account for black swan events or radical disruptions. A technology, no matter how long-lived, can still be rendered obsolete by a truly revolutionary invention.
• Applying it to Everything: As mentioned before, the Lindy effect only applies to non-perishable items. A bottle of wine doesn’t get better and better just because it’s been around for 100 years; it will eventually go bad.

5. How to Apply It in Daily Life #

How can you practically use the Lindy effect?

• Prioritize Timeless Knowledge: Focus on learning fundamental principles in your field rather than chasing the latest trends. Read classic books, understand foundational concepts, and build a solid base of knowledge.
• Be Wary of Hype: When evaluating new ideas, technologies, or strategies, ask yourself: What problem does this solve that existing, established solutions don’t? Does it offer significantly better value, or is it just hype?
• Seek Robust Solutions: When making decisions, opt for solutions that have proven their resilience over time. This might mean choosing a well-established brand over a trendy startup, or sticking to tried-and-true investment strategies.
• Value Experience: Recognize the value of experience in yourself and others. Someone who has navigated the ups and downs of a career or a particular field has a deeper understanding than someone who is just starting out.

6. Related Mental Models #

The Lindy effect works well with other mental models:

• First Principles Thinking: Understanding the fundamental truths behind something allows you to assess its longevity and potential.
• Survivorship Bias: Being aware of survivorship bias prevents you from overestimating the success rate of new ventures simply because you only see the ones that survived.
• Network Effects: The more people use something, the more valuable it becomes, increasing its chances of survival and extending its lifespan, reinforcing the Lindy effect.

The Lindy effect is a powerful tool for navigating a world of constant change. By understanding its principles, you can make more informed decisions, prioritize long-term value, and avoid being swept away by fleeting trends. So, next time you’re faced with a choice between something new and something old, remember the Lindy effect and consider the wisdom of time.