Ever made a decision you later regretted because you were in a completely different mood? Perhaps you impulsively bought that expensive gadget while riding a wave of excitement, only to feel buyer’s remorse later? Or maybe you harshly judged a friend’s procrastination without remembering your own struggles with deadlines? You might have fallen victim to the empathy gap.

This mental model can drastically improve your decision-making, relationships, and overall understanding of human behavior. Let’s dive in.

1. What is Empathy Gap? #

The empathy gap is the cognitive bias describing our difficulty in accurately understanding or predicting how we, or others, will feel or behave when in a different emotional or physiological state. In simpler terms, it’s like trying to imagine the taste of chocolate when you’re stuffed after Thanksgiving dinner – your current state blinds you to the experience.

This model comes primarily from the field of psychology and behavioral economics. Psychologists like George Loewenstein have extensively studied the empathy gap, demonstrating its impact on various aspects of human behavior, from risk assessment to ethical decision-making. The idea is that our thinking is heavily influenced by our current state, and we underestimate this influence when projecting into different states.

2. How It Works #

Think of your mind as a weather system. Right now, you might be experiencing “sunny” emotions – happiness, contentment, motivation. It’s easy to think that “sunny” will last forever. But our emotional weather can change quickly. A “storm” of sadness, anger, or anxiety might roll in unexpectedly.

The empathy gap emerges because, when in the “sun,” we struggle to genuinely grasp the experience of the “storm.” We underestimate its intensity, its impact on our decisions, and the behaviors it might trigger.

Breaking it down:

• Hot vs. Cold States: Psychologists often describe this as the difference between “hot” (emotional or aroused) states and “cold” (rational or calm) states. Think hunger vs. a full stomach, anger vs. peace, or sexual arousal vs. a state of abstinence.
• Underestimation: We underestimate how much our “hot” states will influence our future actions. We assume we’ll always be rational and consistent, regardless of our emotional state.
• Projection Bias: We tend to project our current state onto the future. If we’re feeling confident, we believe we’ll continue to feel confident, even in situations that might normally trigger anxiety.

Imagine a spectrum. On one end is pure rationality, devoid of emotion, and on the other is complete emotional dominance. The empathy gap arises because we incorrectly assume we are closer to the rational end of the spectrum than we actually are when projecting our behavior in different emotional states.

3. Examples of the Model in Action #

Let’s look at some examples to cement this concept:

• Health and Fitness: You’re feeling motivated and energetic after a workout. You confidently declare you’ll hit the gym every day next week and stick to a strict diet. But when Monday rolls around, you’re tired and stressed, and that chocolate cake in the fridge looks much more appealing. Your “future self,” in a “cold” state, isn’t as motivated as your “present self” was in a “hot” state.
• Negotiations: During a heated negotiation, fueled by anger and frustration, you make a rash decision that you later regret. You might have agreed to unfavorable terms or damaged a valuable relationship. The empathy gap prevented you from accurately predicting how your anger would influence your judgment and decision-making.
• Investing: An investor sees a stock soar and, caught up in the frenzy, buys at the peak, neglecting their long-term strategy. When the stock crashes, they realize their initial emotional excitement clouded their judgment. They failed to anticipate the possibility of a market downturn when they were riding the wave of optimism.

4. Common Misunderstandings or Pitfalls #

A common pitfall is assuming the empathy gap only applies to extreme emotions. It also applies to subtle shifts in mood, like tiredness or mild hunger. Even these seemingly insignificant states can subtly influence our decisions.

Another mistake is thinking you’re immune. We all fall prey to the empathy gap, regardless of intelligence or experience. Recognizing this is the first step toward mitigating its effects.

Also, don’t confuse the empathy gap with a general lack of empathy towards others. You can be very empathetic and still have difficulty predicting how you will behave in a different emotional state. It’s about understanding your own internal landscape, not just the feelings of others.

5. How to Apply It in Daily Life #

Here’s how to use the empathy gap to your advantage:

• Anticipate Future States: Before making important decisions, try to imagine the different emotional states you might be in when the decision takes effect. What if you’re tired, stressed, or feeling down? How might that influence your choices?
• Pre-Commitment Devices: When you’re in a calm state, create systems that will guide you in less rational moments. For example, if you tend to overspend when you’re bored, set up automatic transfers to your savings account.
• Reflect on Past Decisions: Analyze past decisions where you made errors. Were you in a heightened emotional state? What can you learn from that experience?
• Seek External Perspectives: Ask trusted friends or mentors for advice. They might be able to see your situation more objectively when you’re caught up in your emotions.
• Delay Important Decisions: If possible, avoid making critical decisions when you’re in a highly emotional state. Sleep on it, take a break, and revisit the issue when you’re feeling calmer.

By actively thinking about potential future emotional states and accounting for them in advance, you can make far better choices.

6. Related Mental Models #

Several other mental models can complement our understanding of the empathy gap:

• Affect Heuristic: This is the tendency to make decisions based on our current emotional state rather than a rational analysis of the facts. Understanding the affect heuristic helps us recognize when our emotions are driving our decisions.
• Loss Aversion: The tendency to feel the pain of a loss more strongly than the pleasure of an equivalent gain. This can be amplified by the empathy gap if we don’t anticipate our future regret when making risky decisions.
• Cognitive Dissonance: The discomfort we feel when holding conflicting beliefs or values. We might try to rationalize bad decisions made during a “hot” state to reduce this dissonance, further hindering our ability to learn from mistakes.

By combining these models, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of how emotions impact our behavior and how to make better decisions in the face of the empathy gap. The key takeaway is to acknowledge that our emotional state is a powerful force, and understanding its potential impact can empower us to make more rational and beneficial choices.